His take on Palin has proven correct, at least thus far. But he was wrong about one, major thing: Palin's choice isn't, in itself a debacle; rather, it was the result of a campaign that is in trouble and trying to dig its way out. If McCain doesn't improve his numbers with women voters, and fast, he's dead meat. Palin, or another pick like her, was his best shot, and losing the election with her is no worse than losing it with someone else. And picking her does throw a bone to the religious base of the party and keep them loyal to the Rep brand.
I'm curious to see what they try next. Palin isn't working out, at least not electorally, their "celebrity" attack isn't getting a lot of traction, the hurricane in the Gulf isn't likely to do much. What else is there? Everyone knows how nasty the Reps can get in an election, and they are running out of time. If they don't get a good bounce from their convention, I think we could see some of the ugliest campaigning in modern history over the course of the next several weeks. The alternative is to roll over and die a quiet but dignified death, and the Reps are too tough to do such a thing (just ask them). As for that bounce, I'm skeptical. McCain, a fixture on the talking head circuit for a decade, is a relatively known quantity, whereas a lot of people were seeing Obama for the first time at his convention. What does McCain have to say that hasn't already been said before, some of it said by people who are pretty unpopular nowadays?