The Potemkin Presidency

Now that there are no more elections, Bush no longer needs his stage prop Crawford ranch:

Bush, the former Texas Rangers co-owner, does not plan to go back into sports but will earn money through paid speeches, friends say. While keeping the ranch in Crawford, Bush is also buying a house in Dallas to be near the library and the institute. He talked about it during a recent fund-raiser in Houston that was closed to reporters but was surreptitiously videotaped by a guest who slipped it to a local television station.

“We’ve got a housing issue,” Bush told the donors before adding mischievously, “evidently not in Dallas, because Laura’s over there trying to buy a house today.”

The crowd laughed. “What about Crawford?” someone shouted.

“I like Crawford,” Bush replied. “Unfortunately, after eight years of asking her to sacrifice, I am now no longer the decision maker. She’ll be deciding, thanks for the suggestion. I suggest you don’t yell it out when she’s here. I did tell her, I said: ‘Honey, we’ve been on government pay now for 14 years. Go slow!’ ”

One of the phoniest, consultant-manufactured people ever to run for public office was passed off, for years, as an "authentic", "regular guy." It's one of the greatest con jobs in history, and like the best con jobs, planted seeds that grew into other cons, like the Iraq War and a massive, upwards redistribution of wealth under the guise of "tax relief." The last seed of this con that might sprout is McCain's campaign.

Palin II

She's a wingnut soul hiding behind a box of Tampax and a pretty face. If -- and I don't think they should -- the Dems decide to hit her, they need to do it on the issues. It's possible the Reps miscalculated somewhat: a lot of the sympathy Clinton got was because the nature of the media attacks against her was so ugly and personal and dishonest; attacks on Palin that are issues-based shouldn't be seen in the same light. At the same time, there are some raw feelings out there, and McCain will try to exploit any attacks at all to the fullest, and play the gender card for every spot it's worth, just when his POW card is expiring. She's bait, and the Dems are best off leaving her to soak in the water.

Ultimately, all this comes down to one of the many key failures of the liberal "netroots" during the primaries. Had they not been eager to play along with all those insults and inventions from Chris Matthews and the rest of the gang, Hillary's backers, and women in general, would have been a lot less pissed off. Of course, had they decided not to play along, Hillary would have been the nominee and all this bullshit wouldn't be happening. True, there would be other bullshit, but if the Republicans manage to put a permanent dent in the advantage Democrats have had in recent history with women voters, it's going to create a ripple felt in places a lot further off than this election. And one last thought. Everyone's talking about how McCain is going after "disaffected Hillary voters." Sure he is. But that's not the actual point. He's going after women voters. Most traditionally liberal Hillary voters won't want anything to do with Palin. But there are more voters out there than just Hillary voters, liberal and otherwise.

Palin

I was simply stunned by the reaction of the wingers to Palin. They were thrilled to death. I expected them to be disappointed because their fellow Mormon Romney got passed over, but not a bit. She's good looking (heard that over and over), young, and -- this fascinates me -- they felt that having a woman on the ticket helps negate the "advantage" Obama has as a black man. They wouldn't come out and say it in my presence, but that was the gist of what they did say. Apparently Obama has some kind of Affirmative Action advantage with the voters, or at least in the minds of the wingers he does. They also liked that she comes from Alaska, and is presumably pro-drilling -- this, for some reason, was seen as some sort of trump card she holds.

The two things about Palin to my mind are whether she is able to hold her own, and whether people look on her as a stunt or a gimmick or an act of desperation by McCain (which I think she is at least to some degree). If she flops, then she automatically looks like a desperation play that backfired. If she is viewed as a stunt, then whatever her merits, she looks like a desperation play, which makes McCain's campaign look like it's flailing. From the standpoint of McCain I like the pick, because he has to do well with women, and a status quo, old white guy pick wouldn't have helped him much there. And just an argument over her lack of experience takes some of the rock star focus off of Obama and puts it on McCain's campaign, which he needs. I think on balance it was one of those good gambles the Republicans take and the Dems won't.

45

The magic number for McCain is 45, as in 45% of the women's vote. He gets that, and he stands a good chance of winning. The entire McCain campaign has been focused on that from the second Obama got the nomination, and nobody seems to understand it on the Dem side. Palin is entirely in line with that focus; if she can hold up her end reasonably well, she will have been another calculated choice in a campaign that is very disciplined and focused, despite the way it has been portrayed on the liberal web and, at times, by the "MSM." He does risk getting tarred as a panderer, but hey, it's McCain. He still has media goodwill to burn.

Watching a political convention (thanks CSpan) has the astonishing power to make me even more cynical.

Obama's speech = good so far. Something like Clinton's in '92, but not as sharp. He isn't as good a speaker as Clinton, contrary to some claims I've heard. But also contrary to the campaign he's run so far, he projects strength and passion. It's going to be hard for people who watch him speak to think of him as effete. I can see him almost "getting it" with regards to the women vote. A very good night for him, especially compared to the speakers who preceded him, who trotted out boilerplate stuff that would have fit in the convention of either party. He did best on foreign policy, the least important piece of the election, but maybe the most important to his campaign. Too many "I wills." Begging for equality on the "patriotism" thing is a loser's move. Why not take the issue? Why in the world did he talk about guns??????? Ending pretty good. Falling into the cadences of black preachers a little, and it looks like he's been sandbagging on the speaking skills some. Clinton still better, I think. What the hell is it with the country music? Exceptionally beautiful family. He gets a straight B, which considering the Republican line of attack, is the perfect grade. The preacher said it best: "Let's go out and change the world for good." Nancy Pelosi = tired hack. Let's hope nobody was watching her.

Interesting

3.3% GDP growth sounds pretty good, except:

GDP swelled 3.3% at an annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said. That came on the heels of 0.9% growth in the first quarter, meaning the economy grew at more than a 2% annual rate during the first half of the year — a time when many economists, including Federal Reserve staff, thought it would shrink.

But the forecasts of a shrinking economy may not be so far off the mark after all. Gross domestic income, which Fed officials have in the past highlighted as perhaps a better measure than GDP, advanced just 1.9% at an annual rate last quarter after contracting the two previous quarters. Thursday’s report is the first to show first quarter GDI in the red.

Two consecutive quarterly declines in activity — usually defined by GDP — is the popular definition of recession, though the National Bureau of Economic Research uses a more complicated gauge to make its official determination, usually several months after the fact.

What is particularly interesting is the cynicism and bitterness of the commentors; you'd expect people commenting on an economics blog sponsored by the WSJ to be, at the very least, somewhat sympathetic to the Republican/conservative cause, but these people don't come across that way. Probably, the kind of people who snarl out "Democrat Party" and toss off lines about appeasement and so on aren't the kind of people interested in dissecting a GDP report.

I spoke with two people today who were cynical and bitter themselves, both retired white men with more than a couple of quarters to their name. One called the GDP numbers "bullshit," and the other, a very mild-mannered and generally nice guy, surprised the hell out of me by all but saying he thought the Bush people were cooking the books to help McCain. I had never heard one pip of political speech out of either one of them before. At any rate, I thought today's numbers would be good for McCain, in the sense that the Republicans could count on the media to talk about how things are looking up, but that hasn't been the response at all. There is a lot of anxiety out there, a lot of pain, a lot of frustration, but not very much confidence in the integrity or competence of the country's political leadership -- even less confidence than usual. And despite this, McCain is still hanging around in the polls.

A tale of two elections

What the election should be about. Instead, we talk about arugula (what the hell is arugula anyway?) and Paris Hilton and "celebrity" and other nonsense. Ultimate fighting isn't too far away from gladitorial games; I wonder if we'll see the real thing in my lifetime.